A cellphone may be just a cellphone

In The Economist magazine's Technology Quarterly nearly a month ago, the magazine gave instincts a healthy dose of reality. Without taking sides, the magazine simply observes that there exists the chance that the cell phone of the future won't necessarily be your planner, GPS tracker, credit card, car keys and internet browser all in one. It may just still be a cell phone.

Have you ever heard someone talk about the future of technology with devout certainty? Most likely you have heard it in the form of a computer doing some marvelous task, or a cell phone coming equip with a host of features not yet standard with today's Nokias and Samsungs. However, here's the important part that these people forget: the most important factor in a technology's success is not in the development of the technology, but rather how that technology is adopted by the masses.

It is a fair guess to assume that technology will accomplish tasks in 20 years that we can't do well now. There's also the likely probability that our lives will be simplified (or complicated, perhaps?) by the continual merging of new technologies and consumer goods. Yet the "guarantee" that one technology will become a standard in the future is certainly an extravagant claim. Who knows how humans will react and use new technology?

An interesting case is presented with both video conferencing and text messaging. Video conferencing technology, a sure "guarantee" to take-off over 20 years ago, fell flat. Text messaging, an tool offered by the communications industry with lowly expectations both in the industry and outside, became a worldwide force. The Economist speculates that cell phones may become small devices with extra add-on components, like an add-on piece to enable GPS, or an add-on screen to manage credit-card purchases or extra, unforeseen things. Or maybe people will simply settle for different cell phones to do different tasks, with the magazine making the analogy with people having different cars for different purposes.

This New York Times article discusses its picks for the top 10 technology goods on the market for 2006. Interestingly, one of those picks is the "Jitterbug" cell phone, a simplified cell phone for people who don't want the internet, a calendar, contact list, etc. Its only buttons are numbers plus a "yes" and "no" button. It even makes a fake dial-tone when you open phone to make a call. The super-simplified Jitterbug doesn't even have buttons to dial numbers - you can only make calls to 911, one pre-programmed number or the operator, who will connect your call for free to a list of numbers you give the Jitterbug operator beforehand. Indeed, this phone does a bit of oversimplifying, and it seems their market may be a niche of older, less technology-savvy customers. But it's an interesting product that brings up an interesting point: Technology doesn't necessarily need to move in predictable ways to make progress.

One thing I know is for certain: I prefer my songs on my iPod, my calls on my cell phone, and internet on my (future) Blackberry. Time will tell if others do too.